Quora || 谷歌, 苹果, 微软, 谁会是最先倒下的IT巨头?

问题：

Which company will fall first: Google, Apple, or Microsoft?

哪个公司会最先倒下，谷歌，苹果还是微软？

回答：

Simon Trevor：

Google.

谷歌

For the simple reason that they make 90% of their profits off advertising.

原因很简单，他们目前90%的利润来自广告。

（注：Other Bets（其他赌注）是指那些具有「登月」意义的项目，包括Fiber（谷歌光纤）、智能家居Nest、医疗公司Calico、Verily（前Google生命科学研究部）、以及研究无人驾驶汽车等前沿项目的Google X实验室等。）

On the other hand, Apple makes 75% off their profits off the iPhone.

Thirdly, Microsoft has their profit split between many areas.

最后是微软，他们的利润来源比较分散。

（注：Microsoft Dynamics是微软公司面向企业的商业软件。包括客户关系管理（CRM，Microsoft Dynamics CRM），企业资源计划（ERP）等）

Advertising is becoming a sticky issue in today's industry. In the last few years, money from Google’s advertising has dropped 7% of their total profit of Google. People are beginning to value their privacy more and more which will continue to reduce Google to a significantly lower market cap meaning they will fall first.

广告行业在当代的商业体系中较为被动。最近几年，谷歌广告业务的营收下降了7%。用户越来越重视自己的隐私保护，而这会明显降低谷歌的市值。所以谷歌会最先倒下。

Secondly, Apple will fall next. Apple relies on the iPhone almost as much as Google relies on ads. Apple doesn't spend as much money advertising and putting the rest of their products out there.

其次是苹果。就像谷歌对广告业务的严重依赖一样，iphone是苹果的支柱。对于其他产品，苹果没有花费那么多时间和金钱去推广。

Tertiary, Microsoft will fall last because they have the best distribution of money. While they are worth the least. They do not rely on any one industry.

第三是微软。它留到最后是因为它的利润来源分配合理，这个公司并不依赖于任何单一产业。

Ps. of these businesses are falling anytime soon.

此外，这仨短期内都没有崩溃的趋势。

前一阵子看微信和苹果互怼，

去Quora上逛荡了一圈，

发现了这么一个有意思的问题

好事者无处不在啊

其实知乎上也有一个类似的问题

BAT哪家最难被打败?

回答里的倾向是百度最弱，AT难分。。。